Everyone is busy publishing their 2026 predictions right now. Most of them are fluff. They are filled with words like "revolutionise" and "skyrocket."

I spent the holidays looking at the numbers, looking at the market, and ignoring the noise. The conclusion is simple: 2026 is going to be messy. But if you stop following the shiny objects and focus on reality, this is actually the best time to be a founder in Europe.

Here is what I think happens next year.

Agentic AI has made the impossible possible: no one believes anything anymore.

We question the news, the posts, the videos. We question reality itself. Social media platforms are fighting it, but they are losing because the technology improves every day.

So, what is left? Reality.

This creates a massive opportunity for genuine experiences. In 2026, anything online that is "raw" and unedited will win. People are craving mistakes, flaws, and imperfections because they signal trust.

This translates to business: if you can prove you are real, you win. The value is moving away from polished digital content to physical, undeniable experiences.

You are on our list because you want to build a successful business. But reading emails is not enough.

Running a company is lonely. You get stuck. You have questions about fundraising, legal, marketing, sales, etc. You need a place to go.

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Because the online world is drowning in AI slime, the "smart" money is moving offline.

Right now, every AI model is trained on the same public internet data. Whether you use OpenAI or a Chinese model, they all "know" the same things. You have no moat.

The "holy grail" for 2026 is collecting information from the physical world. Data locked in filing cabinets, sensors in a factory, or biological experiments.

For investors, this is the only way to find outliers. For founders, this is the only way to survive. If you are building a wrapper around public data, you are dead. You must own the proprietary data that Google cannot crawl.

We are going to see a lot of companies get swallowed up next year.

Too many companies grew fast during the "free money" era but cannot adapt to the AI world. A perfect example is Eventbrite, which has just agreed to be acquired by Bending Spoons.

The "Bending Spoons model"—buying distressed assets and fixing them with technology—is about to become very popular. In the past, this was for old-school family businesses. Now, it applies to tech.

These companies won't disappear. They will be acquired by new teams who understand efficiency. It is a necessary cleanup.

While the old guard gets acquired, a flood of new companies is coming.

With AI coding tools, a small team can build what used to take 50 people. We already have great examples coming out of Europe, like Lovable. The barrier to entry is zero.

We will see a "pandemic" of startups. New "variants" will appear every season. Most will die quickly because they don't solve real problems. But statistically, this is good news. More attempts mean more quality survivors. Europe minted 28 new unicorns in 2025. Our resilience is finally paying off.

We need to be honest: the AI sector is finally correcting.

For two years, putting "AI" in a pitch deck opened doors. That is over. AI is a commodity.

Even the giants are feeling the pressure. It is hard for OpenAI to keep raising billions without showing massive profit. That is why they are looking at ads. That is why Anthropic is rumored to be eyeing an IPO. They need the cash.

Corporate adoption is slow. Companies are worried about privacy and hallucinations. I am not saying the bubble will burst, but valuations must come down.

In 2025, the US raised about $250 billion in private tech funding. Europe raised about $45 billion. That gap is painful, and private capital will remain tight next year.

But if private investors are broke, look at the government.

We live in a fragmented world. Globalisation is dead. Countries realise they need to own their own stack: energy, defense, chips. New funds like the European Defence Fund are pouring money into this.

If you are building a SaaS marketing tool, good luck. But if you are building "sovereign tech" that helps Europe stand on its own feet, the checkbook is open.

2026 is when AI agents start talking to each other. We are moving from "have your person call my person" to "have your bot talk to my bot."

This kills the "per seat" pricing model.

If an AI agent does the work of 10 juniors, charging for one "seat" loses you money. We will see a massive flip to usage-based pricing. If you are a B2B founder, change your model now before you go broke.

Finally, the physical world strikes back.

We have talked about it for decades, but robotics is finally real. Uber and Lyft are planning robotaxi trials in London in early 2026. We will see more robots in daily life, moving from toys for the rich to affordable tools.

2026 is not about the next shiny chatbot.

It is about physics, offline data, and resilience. The easy money is gone. The valuations are coming down. But for the founders who solve real problems in the real world, this is the best time to build.

Happy New Year.

✅ Do a friend a favor. Forward this to a founder who thinks 2026 will be business as usual. They need to see this before January starts.

(👉 Vote now — we’ll share the results in next week’s issue. All votes are anonymous.)

(Last week’s poll results)

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